Dairy:
Last Updated: 10/04/16
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U.S. milk output in August was 1.9 % more than 2015, due to a .5% larger herd and a 1.4 % rise in milk-per-cow yields. Dairy farmers added a net 16,000 head during the month, the biggest one-month gain since the spring of 2014 causing it to climb to its largest level in 22 years. Solid year over year gains in milk production are expected to endure this fall which could weigh on the dairy markets.  Still, export interest for U.S. dairy is starting to escalate which could temper any seasonal price declines in cheese and butter this fall and be supportive of prices this winter.

Oils and Grains:
Last Updated: 10/04/16
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The domestic 2016-17 corn and soybean harvests are progressing with 15% completed for corn and 10% for soybeans.  So far crop yields have been mixed but soybean yields have been very good.  The harvests could keep a lid on the corn, soybean and soybean meal markets in the near term.

Produce:
Last Updated: 10/04/16
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Avocado prices remain elevated due to limited supplies from Mexico.  U.S avocado imports from Mexico last week were down 40% from the same month last year.  Still, some modest improvement in avocado supplies are anticipated which should lessen the upside price risk from here.  The Hass 48 count avocado market during October has averaged below the previous month in six of the last seven years.  The Idaho potato markets are trading near some of their lowest levels in the last decade as the harvest builds.  The downside price risk in the potato markets from here is almost certainly nominal

Seafood:
Last Updated: 10/04/16
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The snow crab leg markets continue to trade well above the previous year levels due mostly to the sharply lower snow crab fishing quotas this year.  The Alaskan Bering Sea snow crab fishing this fall is likely to do little to help supplies.  Expensive snow crab prices may endure

Beef, Lamb, and Veal:
Last Updated: 10/04/16
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Beef output last week declined 1.7% but was 1.3% larger than the same week last year.  The September 1st cattle on feed inventory was 1.5% bigger than 2015.  Further, cattle placements into feedlots during August were up 15.1% from the prior year at an average weight 1.4% heavier.  This data is helping fuel expectations for solid year over year beef production gains this fall.  The ground beef and trim markets are mostly trading well below the prior year levels due to ample supplies.  However, ground beef demand is starting to escalate.  Further, retailers appear to be planning additional ground beef feature activity which could temper any pending seasonal market declines.

Pork:
Last Updated: 10/04/16
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Pork production last week rose 5.2% and was a whopping 7% larger than the same week last year.  Hog slaughter was the biggest in 10 months and the third largest on record.  Relatively ample hog supplies are expected to persist during the next few months which should stimulate strong pork output.  August 31st pork belly stocks were 34% more than the previous year occurred despite belly disappearance during the month being 8.4% more than 2015.  Pork belly prices could move lower again in the coming months.

Poultry:
Last Updated: 10/04/16
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Chicken output from the week ending September 17th was 3.4% less than the same week last year.  This follows the June through August period where monthly chicken production was just .4% larger than 2015.  However, improved margins for chicken producers are expected to lead to better year over year gains in chicken output during the fall.  The broiler type chick hatch during August was 1% larger than 2015.  Further, the broiler layer flock expanded during the month for the first time since March.  These statistics affirm projections for solid chicken output expansion versus the prior year in the coming months.  August 31st chicken wing stocks were 34% larger than last year.  The wing markets could remain firm during October.